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What a difference a month makesBy Tom Tippett It's been a while since we've written about lengthy streaks and slumps, a topic we explored in a three-part series in 1998, so it seems like a good time to revisit the subject. If you're interested in this topic and you haven't already seen those previous articles, you can follow the links at the end of this page. If you did read those articles, the comments here won't shed any more light on the subject, but you might find some of the data from the 2001 season to be interesting. This time around, we compared the stats for April and May to identify the hitters, starting pitchers and closers who improved the most, slipped the most, and were most consistent. As we expected, we had no trouble finding plenty of players whose first two months were dramatically different. HittersWe'll start with the hitters, and we'll use OPS (on-base plus slugging) as our measure of overall performance. Here are the hitters who (a) had at least 60 plate appearances in both April and May and (b) improved by at least 300 points: Name Tm M AB H 2B 3B HR BI HB BB K AVG OBP SPC OPS Barry Bonds SFN 4 75 18 5 0 11 22 2 13 15 .240 .363 .747 1.109 Barry Bonds SFN 5 84 31 5 0 17 30 2 31 24 .369 .547 1.036 1.583 Ryan Klesko SDN 4 81 20 4 0 3 11 1 17 16 .247 .384 .407 .791 Ryan Klesko SDN 5 99 35 8 1 11 40 0 23 14 .354 .464 .788 1.252 Roger Cedeno DET 4 70 12 0 0 0 3 0 7 11 .171 .247 .171 .418 Roger Cedeno DET 5 118 38 4 5 1 11 0 12 20 .322 .385 .466 .851 Damion Easley DET 4 83 16 4 2 0 5 3 9 16 .193 .295 .289 .584 Damion Easley DET 5 91 32 6 0 5 13 1 9 13 .352 .412 .582 .994 Jim Thome CLE 4 66 12 1 1 3 10 2 13 22 .182 .333 .364 .697 Jim Thome CLE 5 84 25 6 0 8 20 0 20 28 .298 .433 .655 1.087 Marquis Grissom LAN 4 60 15 3 0 3 7 0 0 14 .250 .250 .450 .700 Marquis Grissom LAN 5 67 23 3 1 7 17 0 1 14 .343 .353 .731 1.084 Marvin Benard SFN 4 82 11 3 0 0 5 0 6 10 .134 .193 .171 .364 Marvin Benard SFN 5 94 24 2 2 3 13 1 9 19 .255 .327 .415 .742 Joe Randa KCA 4 97 18 1 0 3 13 2 8 17 .186 .262 .289 .550 Joe Randa KCA 5 106 38 13 1 1 20 1 5 13 .358 .386 .528 .914 Michael Barrett MON 4 75 14 1 0 1 5 0 4 10 .187 .225 .240 .465 Michael Barrett MON 5 76 21 7 0 2 4 1 10 4 .276 .368 .447 .815 Ray Durham CHA 4 92 21 3 2 1 4 0 12 15 .228 .314 .337 .651 Ray Durham CHA 5 98 32 10 0 6 17 1 7 16 .327 .374 .612 .986 Troy Glaus ANA 4 92 21 4 0 6 14 1 12 25 .228 .318 .467 .785 Troy Glaus ANA 5 105 35 13 0 8 24 1 17 22 .333 .427 .686 1.113 Omar Vizquel CLE 4 89 18 3 0 0 7 1 10 10 .202 .287 .236 .523 Omar Vizquel CLE 5 95 31 4 1 1 9 0 16 10 .326 .416 .421 .837 B.J. Surhoff ATL 4 80 14 3 0 2 10 1 10 12 .175 .272 .288 .559 B.J. Surhoff ATL 5 63 20 4 1 2 7 0 4 7 .317 .358 .508 .866 Jerry Hairston BAL 4 84 16 3 0 1 5 2 6 11 .190 .258 .262 .520 Jerry Hairston BAL 5 93 29 7 1 2 18 1 5 6 .312 .347 .473 .820 I was blown away when I saw that Barry Bonds at the top of this list. I figured it would be dominated by very good players who got off to awful starts and bounced back in a big way. But Barry's April OPS of 1.109 was only a few points below his career-best mark for a full-season, and he topped it by 474 points in May. With the MLB average OPS hovering around .760 this year, this means that Bonds was more than twice as productive as the league average hitter during the month of May. Roger Cedeno's on-base percentage was above .380 in both 1999 and 2000, making his April mark of .247 look even more dismal by comparison. Or, to put it another way, he reached base only 19 times via hit or walk in the entire month of April, then trod the basepaths 50 times in May. To add to Detroit manager Phil Garner's problems, Cedeno's teammate Damian Easley batted .193 with no homers the first month. Among the others . . . Jim Thome started very slowly, returned to normal in May, caught fire in June, and is now among the league leaders in OPS . . . Joe Randa was one of the most consistent players in the game last year; not so this time around . . . the oldest and youngest players in the game are usually most at risk of losing their jobs when they have such a rough beginning to the year, but fortunately for B.J. Surhoff and Jerry Hairston, nobody else on their respective teams was hitting, and both players rewarded their managers for sticking with them. Now let's see who went in the other direction, using the same criteria (minimum 60 PA, 300 point drop in OPS), with the players with the biggest declines at the bottom of this list: Name Tm M AB H 2B 3B HR BI HB BB K AVG OBP SPC OPS Juan Gonzalez CLE 4 93 36 10 0 8 26 0 6 19 .387 .416 .753 1.169 Juan Gonzalez CLE 5 101 31 6 0 5 22 1 8 18 .307 .351 .515 .866 Andres Galarraga TEX 4 92 25 7 0 5 17 5 8 26 .272 .362 .511 .873 Andres Galarraga TEX 5 92 16 5 0 3 8 3 5 25 .174 .240 .326 .566 Chipper Jones ATL 4 90 32 4 0 7 23 0 19 9 .356 .459 .633 1.093 Chipper Jones ATL 5 85 16 3 0 7 14 0 16 20 .188 .317 .471 .787 Richard Hidalgo HOU 4 91 29 7 1 6 22 4 5 23 .319 .373 .615 .988 Richard Hidalgo HOU 5 80 18 2 0 3 11 1 10 19 .225 .315 .363 .678 Shea Hillenbrand BOS 4 99 34 9 1 2 11 1 1 11 .343 .356 .515 .872 Shea Hillenbrand BOS 5 101 23 1 1 2 10 0 1 12 .228 .235 .317 .552 Shannon Stewart TOR 4 100 39 9 1 3 10 1 11 10 .390 .455 .590 1.045 Shannon Stewart TOR 5 119 33 7 1 1 11 1 8 16 .277 .328 .378 .706 Larry Walker COL 4 88 33 7 1 11 30 3 9 18 .375 .446 .852 1.298 Larry Walker COL 5 92 27 5 0 5 20 4 20 21 .293 .432 .511 .943 Charles Johnson FLO 4 75 25 8 0 9 20 0 7 29 .333 .390 .800 1.190 Charles Johnson FLO 5 87 26 5 0 3 19 2 7 28 .299 .365 .460 .824 Jim Edmonds SLN 4 70 28 6 1 5 21 0 7 16 .400 .443 .729 1.172 Jim Edmonds SLN 5 87 20 6 0 3 9 2 21 29 .230 .384 .402 .786 Carlos Delgado TOR 4 82 24 3 0 10 22 5 26 18 .293 .478 .695 1.173 Carlos Delgado TOR 5 106 24 3 0 7 13 1 16 35 .226 .333 .453 .786 Jose Macias DET 4 62 22 4 1 4 8 0 4 7 .355 .394 .645 1.039 Jose Macias DET 5 105 29 4 1 0 12 0 6 13 .276 .310 .333 .643 Mark Quinn KCA 4 105 34 6 1 9 24 0 4 13 .324 .345 .657 1.003 Mark Quinn KCA 5 76 18 5 0 1 4 0 2 14 .237 .256 .342 .599 Jay Bell ARI 4 74 26 6 0 4 17 0 15 12 .351 .456 .595 1.050 Jay Bell ARI 5 110 25 5 0 3 9 1 7 19 .227 .275 .355 .630 Mike Piazza NYN 4 79 26 3 0 8 18 0 14 11 .329 .430 .671 1.101 Mike Piazza NYN 5 93 19 2 0 6 13 0 5 18 .204 .245 .419 .664 Paul Konerko CHA 4 87 29 8 0 5 14 0 6 15 .333 .376 .598 .974 Paul Konerko CHA 5 92 14 4 0 3 10 2 9 22 .152 .240 .293 .534 Kevin Young PIT 4 62 18 4 0 4 10 4 1 21 .290 .338 .548 .887 Kevin Young PIT 5 76 11 3 0 0 6 0 6 20 .145 .207 .184 .392 Reggie Sanders ARI 4 64 22 4 0 8 19 1 6 20 .344 .408 .781 1.190 Reggie Sanders ARI 5 94 17 3 0 7 19 3 6 30 .181 .250 .436 .686 A lot of these guys were just playing way over their heads in April, but some (especially Mike Piazza and Paul Konerko) are very good hitters who went into a terrible funk and stayed there for a few weeks. Another hitter worth mentioning is Chuck Knoblauch, who saw his OPS drop from .845 to .588, not exactly what the Yankees had in mind when they shuffled their defense to keep his bat in the lineup. Finally, two players emerged as the most consistent hitters: Name Tm M AB H 2B 3B HR BI HB BB K AVG OBP SPC OPS Bubba Trammell SDN 4 76 21 5 1 3 14 0 10 13 .276 .356 .487 .843 Bubba Trammell SDN 5 84 21 3 0 6 24 2 10 7 .250 .344 .500 .844 Edgar Martinez SEA 4 89 27 9 0 3 17 1 23 14 .303 .451 .506 .957 Edgar Martinez SEA 5 97 30 8 0 4 25 2 22 20 .309 .432 .515 .947 More evidence for those who have referred to Martinez as a hitting machine. Starting PitchersOf course, hitters aren't the only ones who are subject to extended streaks and slumps. Here's a list of starting pitchers who improved their ERA by at least two and a half runs from April to May (minimum 15 innings in each month): Name Tm M ERA W L S INN H BB K Ryan Glynn TEX 4 11.09 0 3 0 18.2 31 15 7 Ryan Glynn TEX 5 2.28 1 1 0 23.2 19 8 7 Mark Gardner SFN 4 9.78 0 3 0 19.1 26 7 14 Mark Gardner SFN 5 1.69 1 0 0 32.0 15 14 12 Odaliz Perez ATL 4 8.68 1 4 0 18.2 27 14 10 Odaliz Perez ATL 5 3.51 2 0 0 25.2 31 8 21 Randy Wolf PHI 4 6.46 1 4 0 23.2 32 11 24 Randy Wolf PHI 5 1.53 3 0 0 35.1 25 17 45 Tim Hudson OAK 4 6.35 2 3 0 34.0 38 17 29 Tim Hudson OAK 5 2.18 3 0 0 45.1 31 12 35 Gil Heredia OAK 4 9.24 1 4 0 25.1 40 11 16 Gil Heredia OAK 5 5.24 2 1 0 22.1 33 5 9 Jarrod Washburn ANA 4 7.56 0 3 0 16.2 26 11 6 Jarrod Washburn ANA 5 3.73 3 1 0 41.0 37 13 30 Jose Mercedes BAL 4 7.92 0 4 0 30.2 36 9 28 Jose Mercedes BAL 5 4.15 1 3 0 39.0 49 13 25 Blake Stein KCA 4 8.10 1 3 0 23.1 24 19 19 Blake Stein KCA 5 4.50 1 1 0 24.0 22 17 24 Sidney Ponson BAL 4 6.62 0 3 0 17.2 19 4 19 Sidney Ponson BAL 5 3.22 2 0 0 22.1 23 7 20 Al Leiter NYN 4 5.87 0 3 0 23.0 28 1 22 Al Leiter NYN 5 2.50 2 0 0 18.0 17 3 14 Jimmy Haynes MIL 4 6.33 2 2 0 27.0 31 15 10 Jimmy Haynes MIL 5 3.00 3 3 0 42.0 38 10 33 Javier Vazquez MON 4 6.60 2 3 0 30.0 38 11 35 Javier Vazquez MON 5 3.30 3 2 0 43.2 32 9 39 Pat Rapp ANA 4 6.60 0 3 0 30.0 27 12 12 Pat Rapp ANA 5 3.34 1 2 0 35.0 36 12 24 Octavio Dotel HOU 4 5.82 1 2 0 17.0 19 12 15 Octavio Dotel HOU 5 2.57 0 1 0 21.0 18 9 24 Rick Helling TEX 4 8.07 1 4 0 32.1 46 12 31 Rick Helling TEX 5 4.85 2 2 0 39.0 49 16 20 Jose Lima HOU 4 8.42 1 1 0 25.2 40 9 22 Jose Lima HOU 5 5.57 0 1 0 21.0 28 5 15 Jeff Weaver DET 4 4.36 2 4 0 43.1 50 14 24 Jeff Weaver DET 5 1.64 2 1 0 38.1 28 14 31 Shawn Estes SFN 4 4.18 2 1 0 28.0 29 15 26 Shawn Estes SFN 5 1.50 2 1 0 30.0 18 7 15 Mark Buehrle CHA 4 5.52 1 3 0 31.0 27 12 25 Mark Buehrle CHA 5 2.86 1 0 0 28.1 20 5 21 Mike Mussina NYA 4 4.78 1 3 0 32.0 37 2 31 Mike Mussina NYA 5 2.25 4 2 0 44.0 34 9 42 Ben Sheets MIL 4 4.91 1 2 0 18.1 20 9 16 Ben Sheets MIL 5 2.39 4 2 0 37.2 34 16 16 Randy Johnson ARI 4 4.03 3 3 0 44.2 38 11 61 Randy Johnson ARI 5 1.54 2 1 0 41.0 21 16 62 These guys are particularly interesting because it takes a while for their overall stats to start looking good after such a bad start. Glynn's improved May never appeared on my radar screen, partly because his overall ERA never got below 6.00, and partly because he was hammered in his first June start and promptly went on the DL with a strained back. It's also interesting to note that a number of these guys were coming off good seasons, but somehow still managed to spend an entire month with their ERAs north of six or seven or even eight runs per game. This list also serves as a reminder that ERAs are quite volatile. A pitcher can have a bad stretch look downright horrible if the hits and walks happen to cluster together into a few big innings. At the other end of the continuum, if you can scatter those baserunners and keep the ball in the park for a few starts, microscopic ERAs are achievable. Consider Blake Stein, who allowed 43 baserunners in 23-1/3 April innings and 39 in 24 May innings. That's not a big drop in runners per inning, yet it translated into an ERA that was lower by 3.60 in May. It helped that he allowed two fewer homers in May, but those two homers aren't nearly enough to account for the change in ERA. Let's move on to the hurlers who saw their fortunes dip substantially in the season's second month: Name Tm M ERA W L S INN H BB K Wade Miller HOU 4 2.15 4 1 0 37.2 22 13 44 Wade Miller HOU 5 4.62 3 1 0 39.0 41 12 26 Osvaldo Fernandez CIN 4 5.27 4 1 0 27.1 34 13 12 Osvaldo Fernandez CIN 5 7.81 1 3 0 27.2 36 12 13 Kevin Brown LAN 4 1.03 3 1 0 26.1 18 5 24 Kevin Brown LAN 5 3.66 3 2 0 39.1 34 12 40 Amaury Telemaco PHI 4 3.25 2 0 0 27.2 25 9 18 Amaury Telemaco PHI 5 5.97 2 1 0 31.2 35 11 24 David Wells CHA 4 3.23 2 2 0 39.0 36 11 22 David Wells CHA 5 6.03 1 3 0 34.1 47 6 22 Jason Bere CHN 4 3.60 3 0 0 25.0 19 10 26 Jason Bere CHN 5 6.44 1 2 0 29.1 33 16 28 Bruce Chen PHI 4 3.58 1 1 0 27.2 27 9 26 Bruce Chen PHI 5 6.46 0 2 0 23.2 25 10 19 Brad Radke MIN 4 2.23 5 0 0 48.1 44 4 25 Brad Radke MIN 5 5.13 2 1 0 33.1 41 1 23 Scott Schoeneweis ANA 4 2.91 2 2 0 43.1 40 19 23 Scott Schoeneweis ANA 5 6.00 2 1 0 24.0 31 12 10 Jamey Wright MIL 4 3.32 3 2 0 38.0 30 20 24 Jamey Wright MIL 5 6.55 1 2 0 22.0 27 12 19 Julian Tavarez CHN 4 1.53 2 1 0 29.1 29 14 22 Julian Tavarez CHN 5 4.99 1 2 0 30.2 28 11 22 Pat Mahomes TEX 4 3.72 1 2 0 19.1 19 11 12 Pat Mahomes TEX 5 7.50 2 2 0 24.0 31 9 13 Britt Reames MON 4 3.33 2 1 0 27.0 23 18 17 Britt Reames MON 5 7.16 0 6 0 27.2 36 17 23 Mac Suzuki KCA 4 2.16 2 1 0 25.0 22 5 15 Mac Suzuki KCA 5 6.00 0 3 0 21.0 26 13 16 Pedro Astacio COL 4 3.09 3 1 0 35.0 28 8 37 Pedro Astacio COL 5 6.95 1 4 0 33.2 37 16 35 Paul Wilson TBA 4 6.35 1 3 0 28.1 32 13 19 Paul Wilson TBA 5 10.43 1 4 0 29.1 45 15 18 Esteban Loaiza TOR 4 2.77 4 1 0 39.0 43 8 31 Esteban Loaiza TOR 5 7.12 0 4 0 36.2 49 13 25 Willis Roberts BAL 4 1.95 4 0 0 27.2 20 10 27 Willis Roberts BAL 5 8.07 1 4 0 29.0 36 14 21 Albie Lopez TBA 4 2.60 3 2 0 45.0 39 21 28 Albie Lopez TBA 5 9.45 0 4 0 26.2 41 11 14 Several of these pitchers -- Wells, Loaiza, Lopez -- have been mentioned as trade candidates in recent weeks, but they'll have to show these results were a fluke if they're going to attract any serious bidders. Julian Tavarez is the Blake Stein of this list, seeing his ERA balloon by more than three runs despite a small decrease in runners allowed per nine innings. Tavarez gave up a respectable three homers in May after yielding none in April, but that's not the whole story. His April ERA of 1.53 was more than two full runs below the normal level for someone who allows 29 hits, 14 walks, and no homers in 43 innings. Among starting pitchers, the Mr. Consistency award nominees are: Name Tm M ERA W L S INN H BB K Jon Lieber CHN 4 2.92 2 1 0 37.0 29 9 30 Jon Lieber CHN 5 2.98 3 2 0 42.1 35 8 23 Greg Maddux ATL 4 2.48 2 2 0 32.2 25 1 24 Greg Maddux ATL 5 2.54 2 3 0 46.0 44 11 44 Aaron Sele SEA 4 2.61 4 0 0 31.0 32 5 12 Aaron Sele SEA 5 2.72 4 0 0 39.2 39 6 20 I'll declare this a tie between Lieber and Sele. Maddux's ERA is the closest, but he allowed many more baserunners in May, so the smaller difference in his ERAs is more of a coincidence than anything. ClosersLet's wrap things up with a quick look at the closers. The following list includes everyone with at least three saves in both April and May, so it leaves out guys like Ryan Kohlmeyer who lost their jobs. The players are listed in alphabetical order, so you'll need to scan this list to find the guys whose ERAs have changed the most in either direction. But you'll have no trouble finding a whole bunch of pitchers with performances at one extreme or the other during one of these two months. In fact, there are four examples of closers who went an entire month without allowing an earned run, and eight others who saw their ERA climb above 6.00 for a month. And three of the four guys -- Danny Graves, Jason Isringhausen, and Curt Leskanic -- who made the 'zero' club were also members of the 'over-six' group. Name Tm M ERA W L S G INN H BB K Antonio Alfonseca FLO 4 1.74 1 1 3 9 10.1 11 6 7 Antonio Alfonseca FLO 5 3.38 1 1 8 13 13.1 11 5 8 Armando Benitez NYN 4 .75 2 0 3 10 12.0 6 8 14 Armando Benitez NYN 5 7.36 1 2 5 11 11.0 16 3 14 Keith Foulke CHA 4 1.80 1 2 4 10 15.0 8 6 14 Keith Foulke CHA 5 2.13 0 1 5 11 12.2 10 4 11 Danny Graves CIN 4 .00 0 0 8 12 13.1 4 2 7 Danny Graves CIN 5 7.94 2 2 3 9 11.1 19 4 3 La Troy Hawkins MIN 4 1.80 0 0 8 12 10.0 7 10 6 La Troy Hawkins MIN 5 5.40 1 0 6 11 10.0 12 4 12 Roberto Hernandez KCA 4 8.25 0 2 6 12 12.0 18 5 7 Roberto Hernandez KCA 5 2.53 1 0 2 9 10.2 7 6 12 Trevor Hoffman SDN 4 3.48 2 1 2 10 10.1 7 4 9 Trevor Hoffman SDN 5 4.76 0 1 9 11 11.1 12 5 13 Jason Isringhausen OAK 4 .00 0 0 4 9 8.1 3 2 9 Jason Isringhausen OAK 5 6.08 1 1 5 13 13.1 20 6 13 Jose Jimenez COL 4 5.40 1 0 6 13 11.2 14 5 6 Jose Jimenez COL 5 5.87 0 0 3 8 7.2 9 5 4 Todd Jones DET 4 7.56 0 2 5 10 8.1 9 8 4 Todd Jones DET 5 4.09 2 1 5 12 11.0 19 3 9 Billy Koch TOR 4 4.15 0 1 7 12 13.0 12 5 9 Billy Koch TOR 5 5.91 0 0 3 10 10.2 12 5 6 Curt Leskanic MIL 4 6.94 0 2 2 11 11.2 14 5 14 Curt Leskanic MIL 5 .00 2 0 3 10 10.0 4 1 11 Derek Lowe BOS 4 6.75 1 4 3 9 13.1 20 6 9 Derek Lowe BOS 5 2.81 1 1 2 12 16.0 14 5 13 Jose Mesa PHI 4 3.48 0 0 6 11 10.1 12 7 14 Jose Mesa PHI 5 3.29 1 0 10 13 13.2 9 6 9 Robb Nen SFN 4 .82 1 0 6 11 11.0 3 4 17 Robb Nen SFN 5 4.63 1 1 5 12 11.2 11 4 13 Troy Percival ANA 4 .00 1 0 4 7 6.1 1 3 6 Troy Percival ANA 5 .64 1 1 8 13 14.0 7 1 20 Mariano Rivera NYA 4 2.19 1 1 6 11 12.1 9 1 13 Mariano Rivera NYA 5 3.14 0 2 9 12 14.1 10 4 14 John Rocker ATL 4 3.97 2 0 6 10 11.1 10 5 12 John Rocker ATL 5 2.61 0 0 8 10 10.1 11 7 14 Kasuhiro Sasaki SEA 4 4.05 0 1 13 15 13.1 10 3 13 Kasuhiro Sasaki SEA 5 2.03 0 1 8 12 13.1 7 2 13 Jeff Shaw LAN 4 4.15 0 1 8 13 13.0 10 5 19 Jeff Shaw LAN 5 1.35 1 0 8 13 13.1 7 1 11 Ugueth Urbina MON 4 2.19 0 0 4 12 12.1 5 3 14 Ugueth Urbina MON 5 9.26 0 1 4 13 11.2 17 9 17 Billy Wagner HOU 4 4.09 0 1 5 11 11.0 9 4 13 Billy Wagner HOU 5 2.13 2 1 7 12 12.2 8 7 19 Bob Wickman CLE 4 2.70 1 0 4 11 10.0 7 5 9 Bob Wickman CLE 5 1.35 1 0 7 14 13.1 8 2 18 Mike Williams PIT 4 2.70 2 1 4 8 10.0 15 3 9 Mike Williams PIT 5 3.65 0 1 5 12 12.1 6 9 14 Jeff Zimmerman TEX 4 2.19 1 1 2 12 12.1 7 3 9 Jeff Zimmerman TEX 5 4.63 0 2 2 10 11.2 13 1 11 What does it mean?There are lots of reasons why players see their numbers rise and fall so dramatically from one month to the next. Sometimes a guy tries to play through an injury and just can't do it. A hitter might run into a stretch where he's facing a bunch of top pitchers and/or playing in a series of good pitcher's parks, so he might appear to be in a slump when his performance hasn't changed much at all. And if you look through the game-by-game logs on ESPN.com or elsewhere, you'll have no trouble finding pitchers who had a sequence of five or six starts against the worst-hitting teams in the league (or vice versa). But a lot of what you see in these monthly numbers is just the nature of baseball. Lengthy streaks and slumps are very common, and there's no telling when someone is about to go into or come out of them. When a very good hitter like Jim Thome gets off to a slow start, he'll usually bounce back. Great hitters like Chipper Jones and Mike Piazza can scuffle for several weeks, but you know they're going to hit eventually. So-so players (e.g. Shea Hillenbrand) can catch fire for a while, but they'll usually come down to earth, often sooner rather than later. Closers pitch only about a dozen innings per month, so when a long fly ball leaves the yard for a three-run homer instead of getting caught on the track, that's an extra 2.25 runs on the ERA. In other words, these ups and downs usually don't mean a whole lot in terms of their ability to predict future performance. Sure, there will always be guys who start hot or cold and stay hot or cold far longer that you'd ever imagine. But those are pretty rare exceptions. Of course, the guys who start cold and stay cold tend to lose their jobs, at least for a while, and often find themselves in another uniform, before we get a chance to find out whether they'll bounce back. Related articlesIf you're interested in this topic, you might also enjoy the following series of articles we posted in 1998: Fun with streaks and slumps, part 1 Fun with streaks and slumps, part 2 Copyright © 2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. |
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